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Viruses such as the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that is wreaking havoc on the world, depend on interactions of its own proteins with those of the human host cells. Relatively small changes in sequence such as between SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 can dramatically change clinical phenotypes of the virus, including transmission rates and severity of the disease. On the other hand, highly dissimilar virus families such as Coronaviridae, Ebola, and HIV have overlap in functions. In this work we aim to analyze the role of protein sequence in the binding of SARS-CoV-2 virus proteins towards human proteins and compare it to that of the above other viruses. We build supervised machine learning models, using Generalized Additive Models to predict interactions based on sequence features and find that our models perform well with an AUC-PR of 0.65 in a class-skew of 1:10. Analysis of the novel predictions using an independent dataset showed statistically significant enrichment. We further map the importance of specific amino-acid sequence features in predicting binding and summarize what combinations of sequences from the virus and the host is correlated with an interaction. By analyzing the sequence-based embeddings of the interactomes from different viruses and clustering them together we find some functionally similar proteins from different viruses. For example, vif protein from HIV-1, vp24 from Ebola and orf3b from SARS-CoV all function as interferon antagonists. Furthermore, we can differentiate the functions of similar viruses, for example orf3a’s interactions are more diverged than orf7b interactions when comparing SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2. 

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org/ ) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.